Long-Term Scenario Design

Definition

Long-Term Scenario Design examines long-term scenario design within the broader domain of systematic anticipation of uncertainty, weak signals, emerging risks and alternative futures.

Why this matters

Long-Term Scenario Design can materially affect human agency, capability, belonging, livelihoods, culture, trust, resilience and long-term societal outcomes.

Research questions

Under which conditions does long-term scenario design improve human and system outcomes, how do effects vary across populations and contexts, and what safeguards prevent dependency, exclusion, distortion or loss of agency?

Hypotheses

A transparent, participatory and human-directed approach to long-term scenario design, with explicit safeguards and longitudinal evaluation, will improve signal quality; scenario diversity; decision robustness; preparedness; learning; option value; assumption transparency compared with opaque, automation-first or short-term approaches.

Proposed methods

horizon scanning; Delphi studies; scenario design; cross-impact analysis; backcasting; stress testing; futures literacy assessment; literature and policy review; expert and affected-user interviews; reproducibility testing; methods adapted specifically to Long-Term Scenario Design

Stakeholders and beneficiaries

governments; communities; employers; workers; unions; educators; infrastructure operators; emergency services; civil society; researchers; investors; technology providers