Long-Term Scenario Design
Long-Term Scenario Design examines long-term scenario design within the broader domain of systematic anticipation of uncertainty, weak signals, emerging risks and alternative futur
THE-08 · TOP-006
Futures and Scenario Planning
Long-Term Scenario Design can materially affect human agency, capability, belonging, livelihoods, culture, trust, resilience and long-term societal outcomes.
8 canonical Subtopics in this Topic.
Weak Signal Detection
Weak Signal Detection examines weak signal detection within the broader domain of systematic anticipation of uncertainty, weak signals, emerging risks and alternative futures.
Emerging Risk Identification
Emerging Risk Identification examines emerging risk identification within the broader domain of systematic anticipation of uncertainty, weak signals, emerging risks and alternative
Alternative Futures
Alternative Futures examines alternative futures within the broader domain of systematic anticipation of uncertainty, weak signals, emerging risks and alternative futures.
Backcasting
Backcasting examines backcasting within the broader domain of systematic anticipation of uncertainty, weak signals, emerging risks and alternative futures.
Strategic Foresight
Strategic Foresight examines strategic foresight within the broader domain of systematic anticipation of uncertainty, weak signals, emerging risks and alternative futures.
Scenario Stress Testing
Scenario Stress Testing examines scenario stress testing within the broader domain of systematic anticipation of uncertainty, weak signals, emerging risks and alternative futures.
Futures Literacy
Futures Literacy examines futures literacy within the broader domain of systematic anticipation of uncertainty, weak signals, emerging risks and alternative futures.
Stories from Futures and Scenario Planning
Scenario narratives — not empirical findings.
Long-Term Scenario Design
“Tell me what changed,” the interviewer said. Fatima paused. “First, tell me what you measured.” Emerging AI, institutional and societal change creates a material need to understand and govern long-term scenario design.
Read the full story →Weak Signal Detection
At 8:10 on Monday morning, Mateo, the clinical researcher, removed the word “successful” from the programme dashboard. Emerging AI, institutional and societal change creates a material need to understand and govern weak
Read the full story →Emerging Risk Identification
The prototype impressed every investor in the room. The unanswered question on the whiteboard was whether it improved a human outcome. Emerging AI, institutional and societal change creates a material need to understand
Read the full story →Alternative Futures
The demonstration succeeded inside the test range. The real question was whether it would remain dependable after communications, weather and command assumptions changed. Emerging AI, institutional and societal change cr
Read the full story →Backcasting
Keiko had already told the story three times before the appointment began. Emerging AI, institutional and societal change creates a material need to understand and govern backcasting.
Read the full story →Strategic Foresight
The system crossed the border in a day. Its assumptions about language, authority and trust did not travel nearly as well. Emerging AI, institutional and societal change creates a material need to understand and govern s
Read the full story →Scenario Stress Testing
The first customer did not ask Priya for more features. They asked what would happen when the system was wrong. Emerging AI, institutional and societal change creates a material need to understand and govern scenario str
Read the full story →Futures Literacy
The ward was not short of data. It was short of quiet moments in which somebody could decide what the data meant. Emerging AI, institutional and societal change creates a material need to understand and govern futures li
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