Scenario Stress Testing

1. Hypothesis

A transparent, participatory and human-directed approach to scenario stress testing, with explicit safeguards and longitudinal evaluation, will improve signal quality; scenario diversity; decision robustness; preparedness; learning; option value; assumption transparency compared with opaque, automation-first or short-term approaches.

2. Experiment design

Design: Prospective mixed-method study focused on Scenario Stress Testing, combining controlled comparison, real-world implementation, subgroup analysis and longitudinal follow-up. Methods: horizon scanning; Delphi studies; scenario design; cross-impact analysis; backcasting; stress testing; futures literacy assessment; literature and policy review; expert and affected-user interviews; reproducibility testing; methods adapted specifically to Scenario Stress Testing Independent variables: intervention design; AI involvement; human control; duration; context; governance safeguards; participant characteristics; implementation fidelity Dependent variables: signal quality; scenario diversity; decision robustness; preparedness; learning; option value; assumption transparency; subtopic-specific outcomes for scenario stress testing; equity; unintended effects; recovery or adaptation time Confounders: age; culture; language; education; socioeconomic conditions; prior experience; baseline capability; institutional setting; technology access; external events Measures: signal quality; scenario diversity; decision robustness; preparedness; learning; option value; assumption transparency; validated subtopic measures; implementation fidelity; user-reported agency and burden; subgroup disparity; adverse and unexpected outcomes Success criteria: Statistically and practically meaningful benefit; preserved human agency and rights; acceptable burden; no disproportionate subgroup harm; transparent evidence; repeatable performance; viable implementation and recovery pathway. Failure conditions: No meaningful benefit; harms, dependency, exclusion or distortion exceed benefit; results fail outside narrow settings; affected people cannot understand or contest decisions; implementation or recovery is not viable.

3. Seed result / current evidence

DEFENSIBLE SEED RESULT — NON-EMPIRICAL. The current evidence supports Scenario Stress Testing as a testable research proposition. Problem basis: Current systems address systematic anticipation of uncertainty, weak signals, emerging risks and alternative futures unevenly. For Scenario Stress Testing, definitions, measures, safeguards and accountable implementation pathways remain fragmented or unvalidated. Directional expectation: If supported, the proposed approach should improve signal quality; scenario diversity; decision robustness; preparedness; learning; option value; assumption transparency; subtopic-specific outcomes for scenario stress testing; equity; unintended effects; recovery or adaptation time while reducing inequity, dependency, harm, coordination cost and recovery time. Proposed observations: signal quality; scenario diversity; decision robustness; preparedness; learning; option value; assumption transparency; validated subtopic measures; implementation fidelity; user-reported agency and burden; subgroup disparity; adverse and unexpected outcomes. Seed data profile: Evidence Strength 10/100; Confidence 25/100; Maturity 20/100; Overall Health 34/100; Novelty 75/100; Strategic Importance 90/100. Evidence boundary: No validated results yet.; experiments 0, studies 0, participants 0. This is suitable for protocol formation and baseline comparison, not as a finding of effect.

4. Seed conclusion

DEFENSIBLE SEED CONCLUSION — PROVISIONAL. Scenario Stress Testing warrants structured testing because the CSV identifies a defined problem, falsifiable hypothesis, measurable outcomes and relevant literature foundations. The present position is that “A transparent, participatory and human-directed approach to scenario stress testing, with explicit safeguards and longitudinal evaluation, will improve signal quality; scenario diversity; decision robustness; preparedness; learning; option value; assumption transparency compared with opaque, automation-first or short-term approaches.” is plausible and decision-relevant, but unvalidated. Proceed to controlled testing against the stated success and failure conditions. Confirm, narrow or reject this seed after effect sizes, uncertainty, subgroup outcomes, adverse effects, persistence and handback performance are observed.

Prior-art search performed before starting

PRIOR-ART SEED BASELINE — PARTIAL. The CSV records these literature domains: Interdisciplinary literature concerning systematic anticipation of uncertainty, weak signals, emerging risks and alternative futures; human-centred design; ethics; governance; systems research; literature specific to Scenario Stress Testing. It also records: UN Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction — https://www.undrr.org/implementing-sendai-framework/what-sendai-framework; OECD Strategic Foresight — https://www.oecd.org/strategic-foresight/; ILO Future of Work — https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/future-of-work; World Bank social protection — https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/socialprotection; ISO 22301 Business Continuity — https://www.iso.org/standard/75106.html; UN Sustainable Development Goals — https://sdgs.un.org/goals. Evidence register status: “Seeded; authoritative source register initiated; empirical evidence not yet ingested”. This is defensible as a starting prior-art inventory, but not as proof of a completed systematic search because search dates, databases, exact queries, reviewer, result counts, screening decisions, claim mapping and a replayable receipt are absent.

Prior-art material named: Existing literature: Interdisciplinary literature concerning systematic anticipation of uncertainty, weak signals, emerging risks and alternative futures; human-centred design; ethics; governance; systems research; literature specific to Scenario Stress Testing. References: UN Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction — https://www.undrr.org/implementing-sendai-framework/what-sendai-framework; OECD Strategic Foresight — https://www.oecd.org/strategic-foresight/; ILO Future of Work — https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/future-of-work; World Bank social protection — https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/socialprotection; ISO 22301 Business Continuity — https://www.iso.org/standard/75106.html; UN Sustainable Development Goals — https://sdgs.un.org/goals

Critical gap / next action

Create and attach a dated prior-art search log; lock the protocol; execute the proposed study; link raw data and analysis; then replace the results and conclusion placeholders with evidence-bounded findings.