Scenario Stress Testing

Definition

Scenario Stress Testing examines scenario stress testing within the broader domain of systematic anticipation of uncertainty, weak signals, emerging risks and alternative futures.

Why this matters

Scenario Stress Testing can materially affect human agency, capability, belonging, livelihoods, culture, trust, resilience and long-term societal outcomes.

Research questions

Under which conditions does scenario stress testing improve human and system outcomes, how do effects vary across populations and contexts, and what safeguards prevent dependency, exclusion, distortion or loss of agency?

Hypotheses

A transparent, participatory and human-directed approach to scenario stress testing, with explicit safeguards and longitudinal evaluation, will improve signal quality; scenario diversity; decision robustness; preparedness; learning; option value; assumption transparency compared with opaque, automation-first or short-term approaches.

Proposed methods

horizon scanning; Delphi studies; scenario design; cross-impact analysis; backcasting; stress testing; futures literacy assessment; literature and policy review; expert and affected-user interviews; reproducibility testing; methods adapted specifically to Scenario Stress Testing

Stakeholders and beneficiaries

governments; communities; employers; workers; unions; educators; infrastructure operators; emergency services; civil society; researchers; investors; technology providers