Emerging Risk Identification

Definition

Emerging Risk Identification examines emerging risk identification within the broader domain of systematic anticipation of uncertainty, weak signals, emerging risks and alternative futures.

Why this matters

Emerging Risk Identification can materially affect human agency, capability, belonging, livelihoods, culture, trust, resilience and long-term societal outcomes.

Research questions

Under which conditions does emerging risk identification improve human and system outcomes, how do effects vary across populations and contexts, and what safeguards prevent dependency, exclusion, distortion or loss of agency?

Hypotheses

A transparent, participatory and human-directed approach to emerging risk identification, with explicit safeguards and longitudinal evaluation, will improve signal quality; scenario diversity; decision robustness; preparedness; learning; option value; assumption transparency compared with opaque, automation-first or short-term approaches.

Proposed methods

horizon scanning; Delphi studies; scenario design; cross-impact analysis; backcasting; stress testing; futures literacy assessment; literature and policy review; expert and affected-user interviews; reproducibility testing; methods adapted specifically to Emerging Risk Identification

Stakeholders and beneficiaries

governments; communities; employers; workers; unions; educators; infrastructure operators; emergency services; civil society; researchers; investors; technology providers